Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 17.373782 20.244529 23.392294 27.093255 31.318499 35.984672 41.520744
2024-10-06 13.024508 17.033649 21.894545 28.188181 36.083676 45.620180 57.966084
2024-10-13 10.635982 15.231325 21.256108 29.653803 40.962703 55.557569 75.692538
2024-10-20 8.391237 13.003203 19.471149 29.069927 42.787783 61.489406 88.668349
2024-10-27 6.560924 10.925514 17.431182 27.642672 43.022969 65.020221 98.461821
2024-11-03 5.956257 10.530846 17.701710 29.485512 48.004967 75.530029 118.903063
2024-11-10 5.573210 10.398919 18.311605 31.853603 53.946219 87.900938 143.092920
2024-11-17 4.874212 9.603337 17.716088 32.173907 56.647468 95.518712 160.644694
2024-11-24 4.171569 8.672002 16.741945 31.700505 57.939389 100.947730 175.112961
2024-12-01 3.519689 7.716107 15.576022 30.715815 58.204844 104.649108 186.980743
2024-12-08 3.086220 7.107657 14.948632 30.592462 59.901479 110.795303 203.280098
2024-12-15 2.743091 6.622570 14.481576 30.691220 61.967752 117.684171 221.292685
2024-12-22 2.244283 5.741797 13.165807 29.107910 60.978298 119.516154 231.399353
2024-12-29 2.046147 5.504218 13.145190 30.127085 65.111125 131.044265 259.991856
2025-01-05 1.909621 5.385035 13.357916 31.652091 70.398174 145.167513 294.498913
2025-01-12 1.635624 4.868782 12.610022 31.026237 71.265495 150.996452 314.005216
2025-01-19 1.349629 4.254904 11.531871 29.510582 70.086755 152.711018 325.745588
2025-01-26 1.299876 4.271145 11.957579 31.465565 76.512859 170.020759 369.174721
2025-02-02 1.279116 4.365655 12.589274 33.977062 84.398688 190.889735 421.152335
2025-02-09 1.154017 4.125798 12.332609 34.316680 87.451211 202.022455 454.270673
2025-02-16 1.008770 3.789779 11.767572 33.814707 88.512448 209.035045 479.418077
2025-02-23 0.863021 3.415047 11.031716 32.770463 88.171952 212.979401 498.389165
2025-03-02 0.768025 3.186046 10.665575 32.639637 90.000257 221.789646 528.319049